Can you tell some details? users at one time, vps package (Ram, etc.)
Im running on shared server with 50users at the same time, max at 100 and have no trouble since the start of my XF forum. This costs me 3 Euros / month.
Im wondering about the bad stories of shared hosting, because i have never problems with mine (3 different in the last years - they are from germany)
Just to say, if you're happy with your current host and they provide a VPS package, then I'd be inclined to stay with them. Price isn't everything; if their support is top notch this goes a long, long way. Plus you also wouldn't have the extra downtime associated with moving host as well as migrating to a better package.
Sticking with your host, you stand a better chance of getting an accurate level of what you'll need. Talk to them and explain that you're looking to expand and get a "VPS recommendation". They can check your current usage stats, they'll know what they can handle and where to put you based on their current loads and the server location you wish to choose.
My migration, from one server to another, took around 2 hours for the new server's IP to take hold.
Plus whatever time it takes the host to backup your files, database and email forwarders etc. A 1GB* file structure example (with attachments) + a 5MB database*, shouldn't be more than an hour tops. If they're any good, they'll halve that time to around 30 mins. In just 3 hours, I was all set to rock and roll given *those figures which are deadly accurate.
1. Price is going to vary for whatever host you choose.
2. 50 concurrent users to 100 and upwards (remember whenever you share articles and posts, Twitter & Facebook etc.) this will jump your visitors total from subtle to quite dramatic depending on where, when and what you share.
A rough estimate: 1GB - 1.5GB RAM "should be" enough. But I'd ask your host, if they over-quote you, then they're doing their job correctly.
I say "should be" enough, but it all depends on your environment, your setup, your modifications.
Going forward with regards to bandwidth per month and total storage space, I'd take a look at what you're using now and times it by a factor of 10 to be on the safe side.
Hosts should be, at least nowadays be looking to match RAM to Bandwidth to Space. How configurable this is, is again down to the individual host.
Any modern
LAMP stack should handle XF well, but if you stay with your current host, they'll already know what's required. This again is one job you don't need to go through like "what MySQL do you...?" and "is cPanel?" and "PHP version?" and so on and so forth...
Personally, I wouldn't wait for things to go awry before making an "escape plan". I'd have this done and prepared ready. You may not want to move yet, especially if you've no problems with your host and their shared plan.
The last thing you'd want, is to be in a panic when (notice I said "when" not "if") things start to crawl, user become bored, new users find other sites, losing you potential revenue.